PlanB is still sticking to its Bitcoin price forecast of 100,000 – 288,000 USD for 2021. His prediction is based on his stock-to-flow (S2F) model for BTC, which Bayern LB already took up last year.
According to its S2F model, the Bitcoin price will rise to over USD 100,000 by the end of 2021. There are many who have already predicted such prices for the end of 2019 or 2020, but PlanB’s assumption is based on a valid model that has so far been 95% true.
Bitcoin price of over 100,000 USD by the end of 2021?
There are only 13 months left until December 2021. The Bitcoin course still has 13 months to go through 3 phases of the market cycle. According to this, 100,000 USD doesn’t sound entirely unrealistic when you take the time component into account.
PlanB is currently still confident and says that more and more Bitcoins are being transferred to cold wallets. This is a sign that many investors are pursuing a long-term investment horizon and want to keep the BTC safe in the meantime.
According to PlanB, hundreds of small BTC purchases are currently being made when Bitcoin is corrected. The whales or smart money collect the bitcoins of the short-term speculators and accumulate more and more BTC.
With the shift of bitcoins from the various exchanges towards cold wallets, the supply on the market is falling. In addition, the last Bitcoin halving only took place in May and has halved the range of new BTC that are added per new block.
Halving as a regular trigger for a bull run
In the past, this event has repeatedly caused a supply shock. This shock only came a few months / years after the respective halving. It takes time for the market to feel the supply shortage.
An increasing shortage is the foundation for the next bullrun. Traders who have been trading for four to five years know this effect. The Bitcoin halving from 2012 and 2016 led to the bull run in 2013 and 2017. The last halving already shows a positive effect on the Bitcoin price. The BTC price has risen by more than 60% since the last halving.
The history of Bitcoin repeats itself over and over again. First, there is a fundamental demand for BTC from investors who understand the revolutionary idea behind digital gold. This is followed by a halving that halves the amount of new Bitcoins that flow into the market.
The supply shock leads to a rising price per BTC. The rising price generates great interest from outside and drives new investors into the market. So the demand is increasing exponentially. The whole thing comes to a head and results in a Bitcoin bubble . We were able to experience this process live twice after the last Halvings.